Reserve Your Spot at the Sunrise Multifamily Summit!
October 30 | 7:30–10 AM | Latham, NY | Tickets: $35 with $20 to The Regional Food Bank | Register at: SunriseMC.com/Summit
Meet the Keynote: Hugh Johnson, Chairman & Chief Economist, Hugh Johnson Economics
Hugh Johnson is known for connecting the “big picture” of the economy—GDP, inflation, and employment—with what it means for investors and real estate. A Navy veteran, former floor broker on the New York Stock Exchange, and longtime chief investment officer, he founded Hugh Johnson Advisors in Albany, later merging it with Bender Lane Advisors to form Graypoint LLC, which Cerity Partners recently acquired. He now leads Hugh Johnson Economics, providing economic and financial market consulting. His widely followed weekly commentary offers insights grounded in history, cycles, and data. At the Summit, Hugh will join Jesse Holland, President of Sunrise Management & Consulting, for a keynote conversation on how today’s economy intersects with multifamily investment.
Five Questions with Hugh Johnson
1. How do you approach analyzing the economy and real estate?
I always start from the top down—the big picture. GDP, inflation, and employment. From there, I look at what those numbers imply statistically for residential real estate—permits, starts, sales, supply, and prices. It’s very “number crunchy,” but that’s how you understand both the national picture and what it could mean locally.
2. What’s the current state of the economy, and what does it mean for real estate?
It’s challenging. Employment growth is slowing, while inflation has stagnated and could move higher with tariffs. It is widely referred to as “stagflation.” That creates real dilemmas for the Federal Reserve. I believe they’ll cut rates two more times in 2025, then again in 2026 and 2027. That means mortgage rates will likely come down, and affordability will improve more than people expect.
3. What indicators should multifamily investors watch most closely?
Don’t get distracted by the month-to-month noise. Follow the three-month moving averages of new and existing home sales. And if you want a deeper look, track the residential investment components in GDP, both real and nominal. Those headline numbers are smoother and more reliable.
4. Where are we in the current market cycle?
By historical averages, this bull market is long in both duration and magnitude. That would suggest it’s nearing the end, but some past cycles have lasted years longer than the average. Investors collectively tend to get it right, and markets are still signaling there’s room to run. Someday this bull market will end—there will be a bear market and a recession—but the question is when, not if. The key now is paying close attention to economic performance and market signals.
5. What advice would you give investors, including multifamily investors, right now?
Turn up your attention dial. We’re beyond the averages, so vigilance matters. Watch interest rates, inflation, and labor markets—but also risks that make this time unique, like immigration, tariffs, and credit conditions. Nobody can time the exact turning point, but if you track the right signals, you’ll be better prepared when the cycle shifts.
Enjoyed this interview?
Read our 5 Questions interviews with the panelists for a preview of the insights they’ll share at the summit!
- Jesse Holland, President, Sunrise Management & Consulting, AMO®
- Edward Jennings, SVP, Commercial Lending, Broadview Federal Credit Union
- Jessica Richer, Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker, The Richer Team at Hanna Commercial Real Estate
- Stephen Obermayer, Chief Financial Officer and Principal, BBL
Hear directly from our panelists about multifamily housing and learn what they’re doing to navigate today’s challenges.
Questions? Contact Heather Schechter, Sunrise Management & Consulting
